The latest graphite negative market (12.4) : graphitization price inflection point has arrived

This week, the raw material market fluctuated, the price of low sulfur petroleum coke showed a downward trend, the current price is 6050-6700 yuan/ton, the international oil price fluctuated downward, the market wath-and-see mood increased, affected by the epidemic, some enterprises logistics and transportation constraints, shipment is not smooth, have to reduce the price of storage; The price of needle coke was temporarily stable, the price of coal asphalt continued to rise, the cost of coal-measuring enterprises was seriously inverted, and no new work was started for the time being. The price of low-sulfur oil slurry was lowered, and the cost pressure of oil-related enterprises was eased. Low sulfur coke prices continue to fall affect the purchasing mentality of negative enterprises, indirectly increasing the difficulty of needle coke prices to push up, needle coke market to hold a wait-and-see mood.

The negative electrode material market is stable, the demand of downstream battery enterprises is not high, and the intention of clearing storage is strong. At present, most of them just need to buy, stock up cautiously, and the price is strong. Superposition raw material end of low sulfur coke prices fell, the market "buy up do not buy down" mentality occupies a dominant position, downstream procurement slowed down, the actual transaction is more cautious.

This week, the price of artificial graphite anode material fell, the price of the middle product fell 2750 yuan/ton, the current market price is 50500 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials continues to fall, and the graphitization processing fee has also declined, which cannot provide cost support for artificial graphite anode materials. Although it has been the end of the year, the negative electrode enterprises have not stepped up inventory as in previous years, mainly because some enterprises have accumulated more goods in the early stage, and the inventory quantity is OK. At present, the mentality of going to the warehouse is dominant, and the hoarding is cautious. Due to the expansion of anode material capacity in the early stage, there will be concentrated release next year. Near the end of the year, the negative market has begun to compete for the long-term orders of the next year, and some enterprises choose to compete for the orders at lower prices to ensure the profits of the next year.

Graphitization market

Prices have entered a downward phase

According to the data, since the third quarter, due to the release of production capacity, the graphitization price has entered a downward stage. At present, the average price of negative graphitization is 19,000 yuan/ton, which is 32% lower than the price in the first half of this year.

Negative graphitization is a key process in the processing of artificial graphite, and its effective production capacity affects the actual supply of artificial graphite. As graphitization is a link of high energy consumption, the production capacity is mostly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other places where the electricity price is relatively cheap. In 2021, due to the national dual control and power limiting policy, the real estate capacity of the main graphitization producing area such as Inner Mongolia will be damaged, and the supply growth rate is much lower than that of the downstream demand. Lead to graphitization supply serious gap, graphitization processing costs rise.

According to the survey, the graphitization price has been continuously retrenched-back since the third quarter, mainly because graphitization has entered the period of concentrated production capacity release since the second half of 2022, and the graphitization supply gap has gradually narrowed.

Planned graphitization capacity is expected to reach 1.46 million tons in 2022 and 2.31 million tons in 2023.

The annual capacity of the main graphitization producing areas from 2022 to 2023 is planned as follows:

Inner Mongolia: New capacity will be put in 2022. Effective graphitization capacity is expected to be 450,000 tons in 2022 and 700,000 tons in 2023.

Sichuan: New capacity will be put into production in 2022-2023. Effective graphitization capacity is expected to be 140,000 tons in 2022 and 330,000 tons in 2023.

Guizhou: The new capacity will be put into production during 2022-2023. Effective graphitization capacity is expected to be 180,000 tons in 2022 and 280,000 tons in 2023.

From the current statistics of the project, the future increase of negative electrode capacity is mainly artificial graphite integration, mostly concentrated in Sichuan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places.

It is expected that graphitization has entered the production capacity release period in 2022-2023. It is expected that the production of artificial graphite will not be restricted in the future, and the price will continue to return to reasonable.