Positive market, graphite electrode price bullish

The current graphite electrode market supply and demand is weak, under the cost pressure, the graphite electrode market is still gradually implementing the early increase, the new single transaction negotiations slowly pushed up.By April 28, China graphite electrode diameter 300-600mm mainstream price: ordinary power 21000-24000 yuan / ton; high power 22000-25000 yuan / ton; ultra high power 23500-28000 yuan / ton; ultra high power 700mm graphite electrode 30000-31000 yuan / ton.Prices rose 17.46% from the beginning of the year and 15.31% from the same period last year.It is expected that after the May Day holiday, the market price of graphite electrode is expected to increase. The specific factors are analyzed as follows:

First, the cost surface continues to be high pressure, graphite electrode price has room to rise

On the one hand, the upstream raw material price of graphite electrode continues to rise. By April 28, the price of low-sulfur oil coke in the main refinery generally increased by 2700-3680 yuan / ton from the beginning of the year, or about 57.18%; needle coke increased by about 32%; coal asphalt increased by about 5.92% from the beginning of the year.

Affected by the negative material market, on the other hand, anode material enterprise of graphite generation processing and graphite crucible demand is larger, part of the graphite electrode profits under the influence of negative electrode graphite and negative crucible, lead to graphite electrode market graphite and roasting process generation processing resources, graphite electrode graphite cost increased, the graphite electrode graphite price is about 5600 yuan / ton.

Based on the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke, needle coke and coal tar asphalt as the upstream raw materials of the current graphite electrode market, theoretically, the comprehensive cost of the current graphite electrode market is about 23,000 yuan / ton, the overall profit margin of the graphite electrode market is insufficient, and the price of graphite electrode still has room to push up.

Second, the graphite electrode market construction is insufficient, the enterprise inventory pressure is small

On the one hand, some graphite electrode enterprises since 2021, have been limited by autumn and winter environmental protection production, the Winter Olympics environmental control and epidemic impact, graphite electrode market continued to be limited, by the end of March, the overall operating rate of graphite electrode market is about 50%;

On the other hand, some small and medium-sized graphite electrode enterprises under the dual pressure of high cost enterprises and weak downstream demand, graphite electrode enterprises production power is insufficient, production is mainly to ensure normal shipments, enterprises mostly say that basically no inventory accumulation.In addition, it is understood that in the first quarter, China's imported needle coke decreased by about 70% compared with last year, so it can be seen that the overall production of graphite electrode market is insufficient.

Three, graphite electrode enterprises are more optimistic about the market demand expectations

Long process steel mills: At present, some long process steel mills started to increase, the purchase of ultra-high power small and medium-sized specification graphite electrodes increased, but the terminal steel market is still weak and stable, steel mills more purchase on demand.

Electric furnace steel mills: in the first quarter, the profit of electric furnace steel mills continues to be low, and some recent lower than the epidemic control restrictions on production, steel mills are insufficient. In the first quarter, the electric furnace steel mills mainly consume the early inventory, so it is expected that the impact of the epidemic in May, steel mills have the demand for replenishment.

Non-steel: yellow phosphorus, silicon metal and other demand for graphite electrodes is stable, and due to the less production of ordinary large specifications of graphite electrode enterprises, the market demand side performance is good, some specifications of graphite electrode supply is tight.

Export: At present, although the EU anti-dumping, land transport and maritime resources shortage and other factors still have certain restrictions on China's graphite electrode export, but the Eurasian Union delays the collection of anti-dumping duty on China's graphite electrode is good for the export of graphite electrode, and some overseas enterprises and traders have a certain demand for goods.

Afternoon forecast: graphite electrode market supply is tight, inventory without pressure good market bullish sentiment, superimposed graphite electrode production costs are high, good market demand and other factors, graphite electrode enterprises still have a certain optimism about the market.To sum up, it is expected that after May Day, the price of graphite electrode may increase, which is expected to increase by about 2000 yuan / ton.Information source: Baichuan Yingfeng